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    Risk Management
    [ Скачать с сервера (8.67 Mb) ] 27.11.2009, 23:40
    Foreword
    By Robert C. Merton
    xiii
    Introduction
    By John Hunkin
    xvii
    Preface xix
    Chapter 1
    The Need for Risk Management Systems
    1
    1. Introduction 1
    2. Historical Evolution 4
    3. The Regulatory Environment 19
    4. The Academic Background and Technological Changes 21
    5. Accounting Systems versus Risk Management Systems 29
    6. Lessons from Recent Financial Disasters 31
    7. Typology of Risk Exposures 34
    8. Extending Risk Management Systems to Nonfinancial
    Corporations
    39
    Notes 41
    Chapter 2
    The New Regulatory and Corporate Environment
    45
    1. Introduction 45
    2. The Group of 30 (G-30) Policy Recommendations 48
    3. The 1988 BIS Accord: The "Accord" 53
    4. The "1996 Amendment" or "BIS 98" 62
    5. The BIS 2000+ Accord 68
    Notes 91
    Chapter 3
    Structuring and Managing the Risk Management Function in a Bank
    97
    1. Introduction 97
    2. Organizing the Risk Management Function: Three-Pillar
    Framework
    99
    Page vi
    3. Data and Technological Infrastructure 109
    4. Risk Authorities and Risk Control 116
    5. Establishing Risk Limits for Gap and Liquidity Management 126
    6. Conclusion: Steps to Success 133
    Notes 135
    Chapter 4
    The New BIS Capital Requirements for Financial Risks
    137
    1. Introduction 137
    2. The Standardized Approach 138
    3. The Internal Models Approach 150
    4. Pros and Cons of the Standardized and Internal Models
    Approaches: A New Proposal—the "Precommitment Approach"
    162
    5. Comparisons of the Capital Charges for Various Portfolios
    According to the Standardized and the Internal Models Approaches
    165
    6. Conclusions 169
    Notes 174
    Chapter 5
    Measuring Market Risk: The VaR Approach
    177
    1. Introduction 177
    2. Measuring Risk: A Historical Perspective 179
    3. Defining Value at Risk 187
    4. Calculating Value at Risk 196
    5. Conclusion: Pros and Cons of the Different Approaches 216
    Appendix 1: Duration and Convexity of a Bond 218
    Notes 225
    Chapter 6
    Measuring Market Risk: Extensions of the VaR Approach and Testing
    the Models
    229
    1. Introduction 229
    2. Incremental-VaR (IVAR), DeltaVar (DVAR), and Most
    Significant Risks
    230
    3. Stress Testing and Scenario Analysis 232
    Page vii
    4. Dynamic-VaR 241
    5. Measurement Errors and Back-Testing of VaR Models 243
    6. Improved Variance-Covariance VaR Model 249
    7. Limitations of VaR as a Risk Measure 252
    Appendix: Proof of the Deltavar Property 255
    Notes 257
    Chapter 7
    Credit Rating Systems
    259
    1. Introduction 259
    2. Rating Agencies 261
    3. Introduction to Internal Risk Rating 269
    4. Debt Rating and Migration 275
    5. Financial Assessment (Step 1) 282
    6. First Group of Adjustment Factors for Obligor Credit Rating 290
    7. Second Group of Adjustment Factors for Facility Rating 298
    8. Conclusion 301
    Appendix 1: Definitions of Key Ratios 302
    Appendix 2: Key Financial Analysis Measures 303
    Appendix 3A: Prototype Industry Assessment: Telecommunications in Canada 306
    Appendix 3B: Prototype Industry Assessment: Footwear and Clothing in Canada 308
    Appendix 4: Prototype Country Analysis Report (Condensed Version): Brazil 310
    Notes 312
    Chapter 8
    Credit Migration Approach to Measuring Credit Risk
    315
    1. Introduction 315
    2. CreditMetrics Framework 319
    3. Credit VaR for a Bond (Building Block 1) 321
    4. Credit VaR for a Loan or Bond Portfolio (Building Block 2) 329
    5. Analysis of Credit Diversification (Building Block 2, Continuation) 338
    6. Credit VaR and the Calculation of the Capital Charge 339
    7. CreditMetrics as a Loan/Bond Portfolio Management Tool: Marginal Risk Measures
    (Building Block 2, Continuation)
    340
    8. Estimation of Asset Correlations (Building Block 3) 342
    9. Exposures (Building Block 4) 343
    10. Conditional Transition Probabilities: CreditPortfolioView 344
    11. Appendix 1: Elements of Merton's Model 347
    Appendix 2: Default Prediction—The Econometric Model 350
    Appendix 3: Transition Matrix over a Period of Less than One Year 352
    Notes 352
    Chapter 9
    The Contingent Claim Approach to Measuring Credit Risk
    357
    1. Introduction 357
    2. A Structural Model of Default Risk: Merton's (1974) Model 360
    3. Probability of Default, Conditional Expected Recovery Value, and Default Spread 364
    4. Estimating Credit Risk as a Function of Equity Value 366
    5. KMV Approach 368
    6. KMV's Valuation Model for Cash Flows Subject to Default Risk 381
    7. Asset Return Correlation Model 384
    Appendix 1: Integrating Yield Spread with Options Approach 389
    Appendix 2: Risk-Neutral Valuation Using "Risk-Neutral" EDFs 392
    Appendix 3: Limitations of the Merton Model and Some Extensions 395
    Notes 399
    Chapter 10
    Other Approaches: The Actuarial and Reduced-Form Approaches to Measuring Credit Risk
    403
    1. Introduction 403
    2. The Actuarial Approach: CreditRisk+ 404
    3. The Reduced-Form Approach or Intensity-Based Models 411
    Notes 422
    Page ix
    Chapter 11
    Comparison of Industry-Sponsored Credit Models and Associated Back-Testing Issues
    425
    1. Introduction 425
    2. Comparison of Industry-Sponsored Credit Risk Models 427
    3. Stress Testing and Scenario Analysis 430
    4. Implementation and Validation Issues 436
    Notes 438
    Chapter 12
    Hedging Credit Risk
    441
    1. Introduction 441
    2. Credit Risk Enhancement 443
    3. Derivative Product Companies 446
    4. Credit Derivatives 448
    5. Types of Credit Derivatives 452
    6. Credit Risk Securitization for Loans and High Yield Bonds 461
    7. Regulatory Issues 466
    Notes 470
    Chapter 13
    Managing Operational Risk
    475
    1. Introduction 475
    2. Typology of Operational Risks 478
    3. Who Should Manage Operational Risk? 482
    4. The Key to Implementing Bank-Wide Operational Risk Management 486
    5. A Four-Step Measurement Process for Operational Risk 489
    6. Capital Attribution for Operational Risks 505
    7. Self-Assessment versus Risk Management Assessment 509
    8. Integrated Operational Risk 511
    9. Conclusion 513
    Appendix 1: Group of Thirty Recommendations: Derivatives and Operational Risk 514
    Appendix 2: Types of Operational Risk Losses 518
    Page x
    Appendix 3: Severity versus Likelihood 519
    Appendix 4: Training and Risk Education 519
    Appendix 5: Identifying and Quantifying Operational Risk 523
    Notes 526
    Chapter 14
    Capital Allocation and Performance Measurement
    529
    1. Introduction 529
    2. Guiding Principles of RAROC Implementation 538
    3. Relationship of RAROC Capital to Market, Credit, and Operational Risks 543
    4. Loan Equivalent Approach 549
    5. Measuring Exposures and Losses for Derivatives 551
    6. Measuring Risk Adjusted Performance: Second Generation of RAROC Model 559
    7. Concluding Remarks 566
    Appendix 1: First Generation of RAROC Model—Assumptions in Calculating Exposures,
    Expected Default, and Expected Losses
    570
    Notes 577
    Chapter 15
    Model Risk
    579
    1. Introduction 579
    2. Valuation Models and Sources of Model Risk 581
    3. Typology of Model Risks 585
    4. What Can Go Wrong? 594
    5. What Can Market Risk Management Do to Mitigate Model Risk? 606
    6. Conclusions 610
    Notes 611
    Chapter 16
    Risk Management in Nonbank Corporations
    615
    1. Introduction 615
    2. Why Manage Risks? 617
    Page xi
    3. Procedure for Risk Management 622
    4. Accounting Reports 630
    5. Reporting Requirements by Securities Authorities 634
    Appendix 1: Examples of Reports on Risk Exposure by Nike, Merck, and Microsoft, 1988 645
    Notes 659
    Chapter 17
    Risk Management in the Future
    661
    1. The Total Risk-Enabled Bank 661
    2. External Client Profitability . . . A Partner PlusTM Approach 669
    3. Process for Reviewing Risk in Extreme Markets Will Become Standardized 674
    4. The Credit Analysis Process and the Need for Integrating Risks 678
    5. An Idealized Bank of the Future 684
    Appendix: The Relationship between Market Risk, Business Risk, and Credit Risk 685
    Notes 690
    References 693
    Index 709
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